5 Takeaways from Proposed NBA Draft Age Reduction and How It Affects College Basketball

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NBA and NBPA Reportedly in high negotiationsand is expected to be approved soon, lowering the draft eligibility age from 19 to 18 in 2024. The move was also agreed this week as part of ongoing collective bargaining agreement negotiations. A bygone era where prospects jumped from high school to the NBA, effectively wiping out the one-off era – which arose after the NBA changed the draft eligibility age from 18 to 19 in 2005. Downstream impact on college basketball.

College basketball has taken on a one-and-done era with iconic teams and players like Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Derrick Rose, and John Wall who would never have set foot on a college campus if it weren’t for NBA age limits. prospered in It gave the sport an unforgettable moment and a big season. So the impending change of draft eligibility back to age 18 marks another moment of great change in basketball. Provides an influencing reverberation effect.

Here are five thoughts on the implications of the expected age limit change being approved.

1. College Basketball Outflow

The one-and-done era produced stars and seasons that will go down as the best and brightest in the history of the sport.The Year of Zion Williamson. Anthony Davis’ NCAA tournament run. The year of John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins ​​teaming up in Kentucky. Even Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley will be fondly remembered as legends who blazed unique paths to non-traditional college bluebloods.

Big names aren’t the only things college students miss. In the last decade, her three true freshmen on his first, second, or his third team built by the AP were one-time All-Americans. They were famous and fun attractions, but they were also worthwhile and productive. Although it takes place in the era, Superflame NBA prospects playing in college are much more likely.One-and-dones like D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns will appear, but Ja Morants , Jaden Iveys, and Corey Kisperts are far more likely to hit the NBA scene after at least a season. A true freshman supernova, on the other hand, would rather put his talents into the NBA after his age change than risk going to college, even if his name, image, and publicity rights somewhat minimized that risk. are more likely to choose the path of

2. Athletes who haven’t attended college are at higher risk

For NBA teams, this is a good thing. The risk profile changes for the better when age eligibility is changed to his 18th. If you’re the Mavericks and he’s picking 22nd overall, for example, you can make a decision: his second-year player safe from Marquette who has a 3-and-D upside. or take a big swing at 18-. With a five-star pedigree profiled as a prolific 3rd-level scorer, he’s a year old?Such a big swing makes him more available to drafting teams.

Their volatility and dynamic risk profile can also be bad for NBA teams. Doing due diligence without relying solely on job rankings and high school productions can be time consuming. Examples: Skal Labissiere, Cheick Diallo, Ivan Rabb, Le’Bryan Nash are among the top 10 players in the NBA Draft. had a chance of getting in. The sample sizes published by the university ensured otherwise. No NBA team can afford such luxuries forward.

3. The joy of an imminent double draft

My friend and colleague Sam Quinn did a great job explaining what a “double draft” is – you can read it. Age eligibility change There are three more interesting effects due to

All the best freshmen of the 2023-24 college season are available as usual…but so are the best high school students graduating in 2024. Exaggerated misnomer. Some high schoolers are more likely to head off to college in search of a friendlier draft process in 2025, and more seniors are entering the ring in 2023 to avoid double her draft. may be linked. Still, the raw talent in the 2024 draft pool should be something to watch.

If this change goes into effect in 2024, teams will inevitably stock up or try to stock up on players in 2024. It’s going to be a class made up of both high school and college students, so it’s not just going to be a strong crop at the top. It’s a first-time player, but has the potential to bring in strength in the middle and late drafts as well. Even a mid-to-late 1st round pick can result in value for a normal mid-to-late year lottery pick.

As you can imagine, Sam Presti and Thunder have greatly benefited from this potential change. They have an unsuspecting first-rounder from another team in addition to their own team in 2024.

The Rockets and Pelicans will also have their first unprotected player in 2024. This has always been a possibility.It has long been possible that the draft eligibility age will change in 2023 or 2024.But calculus will change dramatically in the 2024 class. You will be striving to participate and your selection in that cycle may be worth a premium. Something to watch out for as the trading market adjusts to the new reality over the next few months.

4. College Basketball Teams Get Older

With college basketball seasons no longer having one-off plays (or at least less frequent), the average age of players in college hoops could again be as old as they were in the early 2000s. In the one-off era, especially over the last decade, the average NCAA championship team was roughly 94th in the nation, according to KenPom.com metrics. From 2007 to 2010, in the early days of the one-and-done era, before teams were built around one-and-done consistently, each NCAA champion was in the top 20 in total experience. .

Older teams meant better teams. It’s probably a by-product of the age rule change.The number of older players has increased consistently, which likely means more famous faces appearing more often and for longer, and in the NIL era, It can mean big bucks for big names who stay in the college scene for a year or more. College players such as Drew Timms, Oscar Ziebwes, and Hunter Dickinson, instead of topping their bills for his one-off successes with huge market potential, are at the forefront of the NIL and otherwise recognized. It attracts even bigger dollars that it may not have.

5. Professional paths outside the NBA are unattractive to recruits

In my view, college naysayers will continue to be college naysayers. In other words, their predictions about the end of the sport are greatly exaggerated.

There are other professional paths that hurt more than college hoops. G League Ignite was built several years ago with the idea that top prospects could use it as an alternative route to college. So are the Overtime Elite and his NBL’s Rising Star program. Their pitches were all the same: You can be ready to go pro until you are draft eligible.

These leagues will live on, but they’re less likely to be recruited than they used to be. He doesn’t have to prepare to be an NBA player anymore. If you’re 18, it’s easy to . . . become one.

As an example, let’s look at the first G League Ignite class. Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green would most likely have been drafted because of their age eligibility under the new rules. Perhaps Daishen Nix too. Last year, Dyson Daniels was able to do the same.

Some top recruits, who saw another professional path ahead of the NBA as a lucrative way to cash in, no longer make the hard decisions. You can They can still make money even if they go down a different professional path. But for the elite of elites, getting into the NBA Draft is likely to come to the forefront as the number one preferred option. .