Purdue vs. LSU -14.5 (Citrus Bowl)
the choice: LSU -14.5
the skinny: The Citrus Bowl exclusion of Purdue’s sixth-year senior quarterback Aidan O’Connell pushed this lineup into more than double digits earlier this month, along with the announcement by LSU signal caller Jayden Daniels that he will play in the game Tigers final. Throw in the fact that Purdue has a new coaching staff and the bowl game is the last item on this month’s agenda for the Boilermakers and this looks like a potential defeat in Orlando.
Oklahoma vs Florida State -9.5 (Cheez-It Bowl)
the choice: State of Florida -9.5
the skinny: The lineup continues to grow for this game as kickoff approaches, a testament to the level of respect the public has for Mike Norvell’s Seminoles, who won five straight games at the end of the regular season. Oklahoma’s defense has struggled a lot this season, battling above average quarterbacks and Jordan Travis fits that moniker. The state of Florida should use this one in Orlando as something of a catapult for bigger and better things in 2023.
Washington v Texas -3.5 (Alamo Bowl)
the choice:Washington +3.5
the skinny: I liked Washington at +6 when this game started and I still like the Huskies getting 3.5 points in San Antonio. This is a 10-win team that ended the campaign on a six-game winning streak. In fact, you could argue that the Huskies were the best team in the Pac-12 down the stretch, even with Utah’s heroics in the league title game. Let’s take a look at a 2023 Heisman contender here at Michael Penix for the Huskies. Texas will be without two of its star players, including Bijan Robinson, who withdrew.
South Carolina v Notre Dame -2.5 (Gator Bowl)
the choice: South Carolina +2.5
the skinny: It feels like the right choice, going with the team that ended the regular season with back-to-back wins over top 10 competitors for the first time in program history. Early portal departures this month temporarily overshadowed a key recruiting cycle for the Gamecocks, who signed a top-20 class, including a program-record 14 four-star additions. Will this be Spencer Rattler’s last South Carolina game? Rattler, along with WR1 Juice Wells, are expected to announce their intentions for 2023 when it ends.
Tulane vs. USC -1.5 (Cotton Bowl)
the choice: USC -1.5
the skinny🇧🇷 I’m not abandoning USC after losing to Utah in the Pac-12 finale. That might even be an official move later this month if the line stays where it is now. I think both teams will be motivated, so there’s no need to worry about that. Tulane will be able to move the ball against the Trojans, but I also don’t think the Green Wave can stop the USC offense. That must be fun at AT&T Stadium.
Penn State vs. Utah -2.5 (Rose Bowl)
the choice: Penn State +2.5
the skinny🇧🇷 With plentiful deletion options for the Utes, this is a Nittany Lions leaning all the way. Penn State was one of the most consistent teams in the country all year, whose only losses were to two playoff teams. Can Utah muster some of the momentum it gained in the second half of beating USC last time out? Hard to say. Being in this game last season helps, but Penn State has the upper hand in what I think will be an extremely physical affair in the Pasadena sun.
Kansas State v Alabama -6.5 (Sugar Bowl)
the choice: Alabama -6.5
the skinny: This line moved from Alabama by a field goal to nearly a touchdown since Crimson Tide star Will Anderson Jr. and Bryce Young announced that they would play in the final game. And with that, I’m reversing course and taking Alabama to cover, knowing the Crimson Tide is motivated against the Big 12 champions. Kansas State should be able to match the opposition’s physicality, but these rosters are not comparable in terms of talent when both teams are playing with a full deck.
Tennessee vs Clemson -5.5 (Orange Bowl)
the choice: Tennessee +5.5
the skinny: I wrote two weeks ago that I was surprised the line was nearly a touchdown in Clemson’s favor and has now backed up a bit to 5.5. This shows a lot of respect for Tigres and Cade Klubnik, who will make his first career as a defender. Meanwhile, Tennessee will play its first game without game mastermind Alex Golesh and nowhere near a full lineup. This could be one of those games that weighs heavily on the motivation factor and the Vols had plenty of reason to gear up for this season given what happened during awards season.
TCU vs. Michigan -7.5 (CFB Playoff, Fiesta Bowl)
the choice: Michigan -7.5
the skinny🇧🇷 There aren’t enough points here for me to get the Horned Frogs. Michigan is on a mission and plays a type of football that is not conducive to an upset victory for TCU unless Sonny Dykes’ team comes along and is able to withstand the bodies and strength at the line of scrimmage for the Wolverines. Duggan will have to carry TCU on this one to make things interesting in the fourth quarter, but the more likely scenario is Michigan racing to 300+ and advancing to the finals.
Ohio State vs. Georgia -6.5 (CFB Playoff, Peach Bowl)
the choice: Georgia -6.5
the skinny🇧🇷 This is one of my best plays for the bowl season, so I’ll put it this way, it’s time to hammer Georgia before this line passes for a touchdown. I think the Bulldogs are clearly the more physical team and I’m not sure Ohio State will be able to match that strength at the line of scrimmage. The only way the Buckeyes can cover this game and perhaps make it to the finals is if CJ Stroud puts in a Herculean performance against an elite defense. I don’t see that happening. Like most playoff games, this one won’t be particularly close.