Even after the loss to the Dallas Cowboys, there’s no reason to bring Jalen Hurts back before the playoffs as he rests his sprained right shoulder.
And that’s even if it means squandering a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, and thus the first-round bye that goes with it — and those chances are remote (see below).
Either way, the Eagles are expected to double rest Hurts until the playoffs now that Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson is expected to miss the rest of the regular season with an abdominal injury. The NFL Network reported that Johnson suffered an abdominal rupture.
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Eagles coach Nick Sirianni declined to confirm that Monday, but said of Johnson’s lack of games: “It looks like it.”
Sirianni also hasn’t ruled out Hurts returning for Sunday’s Eagles game against the New Orleans Saints.
“We (know) how much he wanted to play last week and how much he did to prepare his body,” he said. “With Jalen, it’s just that his body heals differently than his and mine. He will do whatever he can to stay healthy.
“If he’s healthy, he’ll play.”
The Eagles could clinch the NFC East and No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win over the Saints or Giants on Jan. 8.
Fivethirtyeight.com lists the Eagles’ odds of winning the division at 97% and the top seed at 95%, and that’s after Saturday’s 40-34 loss to Dallas.
So it all boils down to degrees of Hurts being “healthy”.
The best remedy for Hurts shoulder is rest and rehabilitation. If Hurts sits out the rest of the regular season, he will have five weeks off if the Eagles clinch the No. 1 seed, and four weeks if they don’t.
Either way, Hurts will be as close to 100% as possible when the Eagles need him most.
On the other hand, if the Eagles were fighting for a playoff berth like the Giants, then Hurts being “healthy” would likely mean he would play less than 100%. If that’s the case, there’s a good chance Hurts’ shoulder won’t be 100% in the playoffs either, especially if he takes another hard hit there.
It doesn’t take fivethirtyeight.com to discover that the odds of that happening are better without Johnson in the lineup.
Johnson is a Pro Bowl tackle who hasn’t allowed a sack in two years. He set an NFL record, according to Pro Football Focus, by making 928 passing plays without allowing one. That record fell on Dec. 18 against the Bears, so Johnson is probably closer to 1,000 straight plays now.
It’s not like Johnson’s backups are terrible. They are not. The Eagles are 13-2 this season in large part because they have the best – and deepest – offensive line in the NFL.
Jack Driscoll has filled Johnson’s role admirably in the past. Driscoll started at left tackle for Jordan Mailata earlier this season and replaced Johnson in the second half against the Giants on Dec. 11, when Johnson left with the same abdominal injury.
The Eagles could also move Andre Dillard at left tackle and move Mailata to right tackle. They did it in a game last season when Johnson missed time dealing with mental illness.
“Everything would be on the table,” said Sirianni. “Whatever we want is better. I love that Jordan has some versatility, that he’s able to (play the right tackle). I love that Andre and Jack are really good backups and we have a lot of faith in them. your job.
“Obviously, we’re bummed at Lane in terms of losing some time, but we’re also confident in the guys we have in the squad.”
Either way, the Eagles’ offensive line isn’t as good without Johnson. This has been the case since the Eagles made Johnson their first-round pick in 2013. The Eagles are 72-44-1 (. 620) when Johnson plays and just 12-20 (. 375) when he doesn’t play.
But there’s more to it than that.
Minshew has started 23 career games and proved he’s more than capable last Sunday against the Cowboys.
Dallas entered the game third in passing defense, allowing 192 yards per game. Minshew threw for 355 yards and the Eagles never punted. Yes, Minshew threw two interceptions, but so did Hurts the week before against the Bears.
“I thought Gardner really carried himself with a lot of posturing,” Sirianni said, adding that Minshew’s good plays “far outweigh the ones I was correcting.”
Of course, Minshew won’t run off when in trouble like Hurts does. But the Eagles have a strong rushing game in Miles Sanders, who despite a costly fumble, has gone for 65 yards on 21 carries and 1,175 yards this season.
“It’s pretty much the same thing minus the run,” Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith said of the game plan with Minshew in place of Hurts. “Passing the ball and things like that, (Minshew) has a different touch. But overall the passing game is still the same.”
Added wide receiver AJ Brown, “It was different because Jalen and Gardner are two different people. I think Gardner handled the situation perfectly.”
Of course, Santos has a strong pass defense. They are second in the NFL, behind only the Eagles, in allowing 190.4 passing yards per game. But unlike the Cowboys, the Saints aren’t about to score 40 like the Cowboys did. The Saints are averaging 13.5 points per game over the last four.
The Eagles are better than the Saints offensively, and that’s true with Minshew and whoever plays in Johnson’s shoes.
And that’s why Mishew must keep playing.
Please contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.